Bear Stearns bought for $236 MILLION.... ~$2 a share... Collapse...
It was trading at over $100 a share within the past year, and around $30 a share on Friday.
The real question is how many more companies will follow.
The collapse of our economy. All hail President Bush!
:(
-Zen Blade
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Saturday, March 15, 2008
A Long Hiatus
I have received questions as to why I stopped. Well, my candidate of choice, John Edwards dropped out and the race took a very boring turn.
Most of the coverage over the past few weeks has focused on who is attacking whom and who said what. Without someone who actually wants to push the issues, it appears that the primary election has degenerated into an election about name calling and popularity.
Perhaps I will blog again regarding some of my Graduate Student Assembly work, or soccer, or some research, or other random musings. With the help of a couple other students, I am part of the group that is starting Intramural Ultimate Frisbee for graduate students. This is a pretty big deal for us. We hope to have the season setup within the next week. Hopefully, there will be around 11-12 teams.
-Zen Blade
Most of the coverage over the past few weeks has focused on who is attacking whom and who said what. Without someone who actually wants to push the issues, it appears that the primary election has degenerated into an election about name calling and popularity.
Perhaps I will blog again regarding some of my Graduate Student Assembly work, or soccer, or some research, or other random musings. With the help of a couple other students, I am part of the group that is starting Intramural Ultimate Frisbee for graduate students. This is a pretty big deal for us. We hope to have the season setup within the next week. Hopefully, there will be around 11-12 teams.
-Zen Blade
Monday, January 7, 2008
New Hampshire Predictions
Republican Race:
So, McCain is going to take this. This weekend's debates did not help anyone too much, and made most of the Republicans look rather small. I think McCain looked about as good as possible considering the situation.
Romney will likely finish second, followed by Huckabee in third.
The real question is where will Ron Paul finish... In Keene there were LOTS of Ron Paul supporters. My guess is Ron Paul will finish with something like 12-17% of the New Hampshire vote and finish in 4th. If Paul really finishes with 17%, he could beat Huckabee.
Rudy and Fred will be in 5th and 6th.
Long term:
Romney is in real trouble. McCain and Huckabee are pushing forward, and Romney does not have much momentum. He did win in Wyoming, but no one heard about that.
If, and when, Huckabee wins in South Carolina, this race will become really interesting.
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney
Democratic Race:
The Democratic debate on Saturday night was a great debate. I think each of the three main candidates did what they wanted. I think Clinton was a bit weaker (this could just be that I do not particularly like her), while I think Edwards outperformed everyone by being both substantive and genuine. Obama did well and his base will be happy about his performance. Considering that his support is currently the largest, he did what he needed to do.
In Keene, Obama's support does not appear to be as strong as elsewhere. However, he has the youth vote.
The Edwards strategy must be to beat Clinton again, this time in NH.
1. Obama, with high-30's, possibly low 40's. Let's say 39%.
2. Edwards, the polls do not have Edwards high enough at this point to beat Clinton. But I am optimistic. Mid-twenties, ~25%.
3. Clinton is going to collapse. If she finishes in the 30's, she still has a chance... but I think she is looking at the mid-twenties, ~25%, just below Edwards---like in Iowa.
4. Richardson, his support was surprisingly strong in Keene. ~5-8%.
Long Term:
Obama... Unless he messes up big time... OR, unless JRE is able to out debate him 1v1, Obama will win this. If you were to give me $10, I would bet on Obama.
2/3: It only matters as far as issues go. If Edwards stays in the race until February or longer, then Obama will become more progressive, which is good for us all.
I might post some more thoughts later.
-Zen Blade
So, McCain is going to take this. This weekend's debates did not help anyone too much, and made most of the Republicans look rather small. I think McCain looked about as good as possible considering the situation.
Romney will likely finish second, followed by Huckabee in third.
The real question is where will Ron Paul finish... In Keene there were LOTS of Ron Paul supporters. My guess is Ron Paul will finish with something like 12-17% of the New Hampshire vote and finish in 4th. If Paul really finishes with 17%, he could beat Huckabee.
Rudy and Fred will be in 5th and 6th.
Long term:
Romney is in real trouble. McCain and Huckabee are pushing forward, and Romney does not have much momentum. He did win in Wyoming, but no one heard about that.
If, and when, Huckabee wins in South Carolina, this race will become really interesting.
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney
Democratic Race:
The Democratic debate on Saturday night was a great debate. I think each of the three main candidates did what they wanted. I think Clinton was a bit weaker (this could just be that I do not particularly like her), while I think Edwards outperformed everyone by being both substantive and genuine. Obama did well and his base will be happy about his performance. Considering that his support is currently the largest, he did what he needed to do.
In Keene, Obama's support does not appear to be as strong as elsewhere. However, he has the youth vote.
The Edwards strategy must be to beat Clinton again, this time in NH.
1. Obama, with high-30's, possibly low 40's. Let's say 39%.
2. Edwards, the polls do not have Edwards high enough at this point to beat Clinton. But I am optimistic. Mid-twenties, ~25%.
3. Clinton is going to collapse. If she finishes in the 30's, she still has a chance... but I think she is looking at the mid-twenties, ~25%, just below Edwards---like in Iowa.
4. Richardson, his support was surprisingly strong in Keene. ~5-8%.
Long Term:
Obama... Unless he messes up big time... OR, unless JRE is able to out debate him 1v1, Obama will win this. If you were to give me $10, I would bet on Obama.
2/3: It only matters as far as issues go. If Edwards stays in the race until February or longer, then Obama will become more progressive, which is good for us all.
I might post some more thoughts later.
-Zen Blade
Thoughts on New Hampshire
I was up in Keene, NH this weekend volunteering for the Edwards Campaign. On Saturday. I canvassed a couple of neighborhoods, then phonebanked for a while, and then spent the night at my friend Tyler's house and watched the debate there. The debate was quite good. On Sunday, I canvassed one more neighborhood, and that was that. The campaign had more volunteers than they had expected and easily met their weekend goals.
Keene was a very nice little town. It had a very strong college-town feel too it. The people were nice and pretty much everywhere you go and everyone you see is either electioneering or has been electioneered by someone else. Granted, there are many people not participating, but I think they try to get out of NH or hide in their basements.
Anyways, I had a lot of fun and felt good for the most part.
Good things:
I think I will keep this post short. It became clear to me (I already thought this, but it became more clear to me while in NH) that Obama is going to trounce Clinton+Edwards in NH. The real battle is for second, and Edwards has a fighting chance. If only the media would pay him SOME attention. While volunteering, I would run into people who had not heard that he finished in second in Iowa. These people new Obama won... but not that JRE had finished in second. It is really hard to win when the media ignores your candidate.
Predictions to come shortly.
-Zen Blade
Keene was a very nice little town. It had a very strong college-town feel too it. The people were nice and pretty much everywhere you go and everyone you see is either electioneering or has been electioneered by someone else. Granted, there are many people not participating, but I think they try to get out of NH or hide in their basements.
Anyways, I had a lot of fun and felt good for the most part.
Good things:
- Often people would thank you for participating, even if they were not supporting your candidate. I remember a McCain supporter and an elderly gentleman who was supporting Clinton in particular being very kind.
- The enthusiasm of the Obama youngsters... these young folk may be naive, but they are inspired and active. If only we could turn them onto JRE.
- The relaxed attitude of the area and countryside.
- Elderly female Clinton supporters.... oh my, after having 3 or 4 negative experiences I decided to not even to attempt to speak to someone that we had recorded as being a Clinton supporter/leaner, female, and over 70 or so... I think they are quite upset that Clinton is in trouble.
- The lack of JRE outreach to the younger (20's) voters around the college. I was really surprised by this. Post-Iowa, you have to realize that these people will be turning out. Most of these younger voters are NOT high information voters, and if we do not reach out to them, they will certainly vote for Obama. If we reach out, there is a chance some might see JRE as the more likely candidate to enact positive change and reform.
I think I will keep this post short. It became clear to me (I already thought this, but it became more clear to me while in NH) that Obama is going to trounce Clinton+Edwards in NH. The real battle is for second, and Edwards has a fighting chance. If only the media would pay him SOME attention. While volunteering, I would run into people who had not heard that he finished in second in Iowa. These people new Obama won... but not that JRE had finished in second. It is really hard to win when the media ignores your candidate.
Predictions to come shortly.
-Zen Blade
Post-Iowa, Pre-My Weekend in NH
So, a friend wrote me an e-mail after Iowa:
Prior to going to NH, my answer would simply be, if you forced me to make a $10 bet, that's who I would bet for.
There are two reasons for this:
1. Momentum. Barrack has the momentum, and that is very dangerous when you already have money, and now you are getting even more money.
2. New Voters. Barrack is getting votes from people the Edwards campaign and the Clinton campaign are not actively pursuing. This means if turnout continues to be very high, Obama wins.
This being said, I still support JRE, and off to New Hampshire I went.
-Zen Blade
"So, does this mean Barrack is going to be the nominee?"
Prior to going to NH, my answer would simply be, if you forced me to make a $10 bet, that's who I would bet for.
There are two reasons for this:
1. Momentum. Barrack has the momentum, and that is very dangerous when you already have money, and now you are getting even more money.
2. New Voters. Barrack is getting votes from people the Edwards campaign and the Clinton campaign are not actively pursuing. This means if turnout continues to be very high, Obama wins.
This being said, I still support JRE, and off to New Hampshire I went.
-Zen Blade
Saturday, January 5, 2008
I am (just about) in New Hampshire
Leaving in 5 minutes to go to Keene, New Hampshire. I am looking forward to talking to people in Keene. This will be a cool day (and cold).
-Zen Blade
-Zen Blade
Friday, January 4, 2008
A Victory
Wow... what a night.
~230,000 Democrats caucused, almost twice the number that caucused in 2004. That's amazing.
Obama had a great victory for him, and I don't see how he could lose New Hampshire (unless he really messes up).
His victory speech was great.
Edwards finished second, but honestly, I have come to the conclusion that that too is a victory. The question is how the result will play out in the media. Edwards beat Clinton (by a small margin), even though both Obama and Clinton outspend him by 3:1 each... plus all the paid staffers the two campaigns had.
Edwards gave a great speech that his supporters wanted to hear. The question is whether the speech will resonate with other people.
Clinton bombed. This was the worst possible outcome for her. A decisive Obama win. Clinton will likely finish 2nd or 3rd in New Hampshire.
Her speech was pretty good, but not great. Her only option: Go nuclear against Obama. She has to attack his lack of experience, his never having fought through a real election, and anything else she can.
On the Republican side, the evangelicals turned out and gave Huckabee a major victory. His speech was also well done. If he is wise, he will spend only a little time in New Hampshire and instead focus on S. Carolina and other states. The northeast is NOT going to be Huckabee country. Romney is in deep crap. We'll see how McCain does in New Hampshire. My guess is that the establishment gets behind McCain VERY quickly if he does well in New Hampshire.
Anyways, I prefer caucuses to general primary/elections because voters seem to be more informed. It takes time and effort. To me, that is what a democracy/republic is all about: you are willing to invest time to help run your country, to choose wisely... even if you choose someone I would not choose.
On a final note, I hope Obama will stop going after the Democratic constituencies and instead focus on going after Republicans. Seriously, they WILL NOT COMPROMISE WITH YOU NOR WILL THEY BOW DOWN AND LET YOU ENACT WHATEVER REFORM YOU LIKE. The best example for this is FDR in 1932 (and 1936?). He had to fight tooth and nail to get some of his reforms put in place. There were a lot of judicial challenges among other hurdles.
I will probably be in New Hampshire this weekend.
Go John Edwards!
-Zen Blade
~230,000 Democrats caucused, almost twice the number that caucused in 2004. That's amazing.
Obama had a great victory for him, and I don't see how he could lose New Hampshire (unless he really messes up).
His victory speech was great.
Edwards finished second, but honestly, I have come to the conclusion that that too is a victory. The question is how the result will play out in the media. Edwards beat Clinton (by a small margin), even though both Obama and Clinton outspend him by 3:1 each... plus all the paid staffers the two campaigns had.
Edwards gave a great speech that his supporters wanted to hear. The question is whether the speech will resonate with other people.
Clinton bombed. This was the worst possible outcome for her. A decisive Obama win. Clinton will likely finish 2nd or 3rd in New Hampshire.
Her speech was pretty good, but not great. Her only option: Go nuclear against Obama. She has to attack his lack of experience, his never having fought through a real election, and anything else she can.
On the Republican side, the evangelicals turned out and gave Huckabee a major victory. His speech was also well done. If he is wise, he will spend only a little time in New Hampshire and instead focus on S. Carolina and other states. The northeast is NOT going to be Huckabee country. Romney is in deep crap. We'll see how McCain does in New Hampshire. My guess is that the establishment gets behind McCain VERY quickly if he does well in New Hampshire.
Anyways, I prefer caucuses to general primary/elections because voters seem to be more informed. It takes time and effort. To me, that is what a democracy/republic is all about: you are willing to invest time to help run your country, to choose wisely... even if you choose someone I would not choose.
On a final note, I hope Obama will stop going after the Democratic constituencies and instead focus on going after Republicans. Seriously, they WILL NOT COMPROMISE WITH YOU NOR WILL THEY BOW DOWN AND LET YOU ENACT WHATEVER REFORM YOU LIKE. The best example for this is FDR in 1932 (and 1936?). He had to fight tooth and nail to get some of his reforms put in place. There were a lot of judicial challenges among other hurdles.
I will probably be in New Hampshire this weekend.
Go John Edwards!
-Zen Blade
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