New Hampshire Predictions

Republican Race:

So, McCain is going to take this. This weekend's debates did not help anyone too much, and made most of the Republicans look rather small. I think McCain looked about as good as possible considering the situation.

Romney will likely finish second, followed by Huckabee in third.

The real question is where will Ron Paul finish... In Keene there were LOTS of Ron Paul supporters. My guess is Ron Paul will finish with something like 12-17% of the New Hampshire vote and finish in 4th. If Paul really finishes with 17%, he could beat Huckabee.

Rudy and Fred will be in 5th and 6th.

Long term:

Romney is in real trouble. McCain and Huckabee are pushing forward, and Romney does not have much momentum. He did win in Wyoming, but no one heard about that.
If, and when, Huckabee wins in South Carolina, this race will become really interesting.

1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney


Democratic Race:

The Democratic debate on Saturday night was a great debate. I think each of the three main candidates did what they wanted. I think Clinton was a bit weaker (this could just be that I do not particularly like her), while I think Edwards outperformed everyone by being both substantive and genuine. Obama did well and his base will be happy about his performance. Considering that his support is currently the largest, he did what he needed to do.

In Keene, Obama's support does not appear to be as strong as elsewhere. However, he has the youth vote.
The Edwards strategy must be to beat Clinton again, this time in NH.

1. Obama, with high-30's, possibly low 40's. Let's say 39%.

2. Edwards, the polls do not have Edwards high enough at this point to beat Clinton. But I am optimistic. Mid-twenties, ~25%.

3. Clinton is going to collapse. If she finishes in the 30's, she still has a chance... but I think she is looking at the mid-twenties, ~25%, just below Edwards---like in Iowa.

4. Richardson, his support was surprisingly strong in Keene. ~5-8%.


Long Term:

Obama... Unless he messes up big time... OR, unless JRE is able to out debate him 1v1, Obama will win this. If you were to give me $10, I would bet on Obama.

2/3: It only matters as far as issues go. If Edwards stays in the race until February or longer, then Obama will become more progressive, which is good for us all.

I might post some more thoughts later.

-Zen Blade