New Hampshire Predictions

Republican Race:

So, McCain is going to take this. This weekend's debates did not help anyone too much, and made most of the Republicans look rather small. I think McCain looked about as good as possible considering the situation.

Romney will likely finish second, followed by Huckabee in third.

The real question is where will Ron Paul finish... In Keene there were LOTS of Ron Paul supporters. My guess is Ron Paul will finish with something like 12-17% of the New Hampshire vote and finish in 4th. If Paul really finishes with 17%, he could beat Huckabee.

Rudy and Fred will be in 5th and 6th.

Long term:

Romney is in real trouble. McCain and Huckabee are pushing forward, and Romney does not have much momentum. He did win in Wyoming, but no one heard about that.
If, and when, Huckabee wins in South Carolina, this race will become really interesting.

1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney


Democratic Race:

The Democratic debate on Saturday night was a great debate. I think each of the three main candidates did what they wanted. I think Clinton was a bit weaker (this could just be that I do not particularly like her), while I think Edwards outperformed everyone by being both substantive and genuine. Obama did well and his base will be happy about his performance. Considering that his support is currently the largest, he did what he needed to do.

In Keene, Obama's support does not appear to be as strong as elsewhere. However, he has the youth vote.
The Edwards strategy must be to beat Clinton again, this time in NH.

1. Obama, with high-30's, possibly low 40's. Let's say 39%.

2. Edwards, the polls do not have Edwards high enough at this point to beat Clinton. But I am optimistic. Mid-twenties, ~25%.

3. Clinton is going to collapse. If she finishes in the 30's, she still has a chance... but I think she is looking at the mid-twenties, ~25%, just below Edwards---like in Iowa.

4. Richardson, his support was surprisingly strong in Keene. ~5-8%.


Long Term:

Obama... Unless he messes up big time... OR, unless JRE is able to out debate him 1v1, Obama will win this. If you were to give me $10, I would bet on Obama.

2/3: It only matters as far as issues go. If Edwards stays in the race until February or longer, then Obama will become more progressive, which is good for us all.

I might post some more thoughts later.

-Zen Blade

Thoughts on New Hampshire

I was up in Keene, NH this weekend volunteering for the Edwards Campaign. On Saturday. I canvassed a couple of neighborhoods, then phonebanked for a while, and then spent the night at my friend Tyler's house and watched the debate there. The debate was quite good. On Sunday, I canvassed one more neighborhood, and that was that. The campaign had more volunteers than they had expected and easily met their weekend goals.

Keene was a very nice little town. It had a very strong college-town feel too it. The people were nice and pretty much everywhere you go and everyone you see is either electioneering or has been electioneered by someone else. Granted, there are many people not participating, but I think they try to get out of NH or hide in their basements.

Anyways, I had a lot of fun and felt good for the most part.
Good things:

• Often people would thank you for participating, even if they were not supporting your candidate. I remember a McCain supporter and an elderly gentleman who was supporting Clinton in particular being very kind.
• The enthusiasm of the Obama youngsters... these young folk may be naive, but they are inspired and active. If only we could turn them onto JRE.
• The relaxed attitude of the area and countryside.

Bad things:

• Elderly female Clinton supporters.... oh my, after having 3 or 4 negative experiences I decided to not even to attempt to speak to someone that we had recorded as being a Clinton supporter/leaner, female, and over 70 or so... I think they are quite upset that Clinton is in trouble.
• The lack of JRE outreach to the younger (20's) voters around the college. I was really surprised by this. Post-Iowa, you have to realize that these people will be turning out. Most of these younger voters are NOT high information voters, and if we do not reach out to them, they will certainly vote for Obama. If we reach out, there is a chance some might see JRE as the more likely candidate to enact positive change and reform.

I think I will keep this post short. It became clear to me (I already thought this, but it became more clear to me while in NH) that Obama is going to trounce Clinton+Edwards in NH. The real battle is for second, and Edwards has a fighting chance. If only the media would pay him SOME attention. While volunteering, I would run into people who had not heard that he finished in second in Iowa. These people new Obama won... but not that JRE had finished in second. It is really hard to win when the media ignores your candidate.

Predictions to come shortly.

-Zen Blade

Post-Iowa, Pre-My Weekend in NH

So, a friend wrote me an e-mail after Iowa:

"So, does this mean Barrack is going to be the nominee?"

Prior to going to NH, my answer would simply be, if you forced me to make a $10 bet, that's who I would bet for.

There are two reasons for this:

1. Momentum. Barrack has the momentum, and that is very dangerous when you already have money, and now you are getting even more money.

2. New Voters. Barrack is getting votes from people the Edwards campaign and the Clinton campaign are not actively pursuing. This means if turnout continues to be very high, Obama wins.

This being said, I still support JRE, and off to New Hampshire I went.

-Zen Blade

I am (just about) in New Hampshire

Leaving in 5 minutes to go to Keene, New Hampshire. I am looking forward to talking to people in Keene. This will be a cool day (and cold).

-Zen Blade

A Victory

Wow... what a night.

~230,000 Democrats caucused, almost twice the number that caucused in 2004. That's amazing.

Obama had a great victory for him, and I don't see how he could lose New Hampshire (unless he really messes up).
His victory speech was great.

Edwards finished second, but honestly, I have come to the conclusion that that too is a victory. The question is how the result will play out in the media. Edwards beat Clinton (by a small margin), even though both Obama and Clinton outspend him by 3:1 each... plus all the paid staffers the two campaigns had.
Edwards gave a great speech that his supporters wanted to hear. The question is whether the speech will resonate with other people.

Clinton bombed. This was the worst possible outcome for her. A decisive Obama win. Clinton will likely finish 2nd or 3rd in New Hampshire.
Her speech was pretty good, but not great. Her only option: Go nuclear against Obama. She has to attack his lack of experience, his never having fought through a real election, and anything else she can.


On the Republican side, the evangelicals turned out and gave Huckabee a major victory. His speech was also well done. If he is wise, he will spend only a little time in New Hampshire and instead focus on S. Carolina and other states. The northeast is NOT going to be Huckabee country. Romney is in deep crap. We'll see how McCain does in New Hampshire. My guess is that the establishment gets behind McCain VERY quickly if he does well in New Hampshire.

Anyways, I prefer caucuses to general primary/elections because voters seem to be more informed. It takes time and effort. To me, that is what a democracy/republic is all about: you are willing to invest time to help run your country, to choose wisely... even if you choose someone I would not choose.

On a final note, I hope Obama will stop going after the Democratic constituencies and instead focus on going after Republicans. Seriously, they WILL NOT COMPROMISE WITH YOU NOR WILL THEY BOW DOWN AND LET YOU ENACT WHATEVER REFORM YOU LIKE. The best example for this is FDR in 1932 (and 1936?). He had to fight tooth and nail to get some of his reforms put in place. There were a lot of judicial challenges among other hurdles.

I will probably be in New Hampshire this weekend.
Go John Edwards!

-Zen Blade

Predictions: Iowa and Beyond

First, back in Rise and Fall I at the bottom I gave some Republican predictions.

Republicans:
Today in Iowa:
The 1st/2nd place finish will depend on organization versus evangelical turnout. Romney has the organization, Huckabee has the evangelicals.

I'm going to give Huckabee the slight edge. This is mainly because I think this will make the race more interesting. Romney has the better organization, and he would be the more conventional choice. Either could win.

3rd--John McCain, setting up a potentially hot New Hampshire contest.
4th--Fred Thompson. The rumor is that Thompson is out of the race after Iowa, no matter what.
5th--Ron Paul ahead of Giuliani? Probably. Republicans who might have voted for Rudy are probably headed to Obama... actually most of those Republicans probably don't live in Iowa.

Long term: I give it to McCain, then Romney, then Huckabee.


Democrats:

Iowa: Ugghhh.... Obama is supposedly ahead, but dependent on independents... Many second tier candidates are telling their supporters to caucus with Obama as their second choice... uggg--this makes no sense. Sure, one or two might in hopes of receiving something from Obama, but otherwise this just stinks of a bad plan for each of them. Unless they hope to all be VP/Secretary of something.

This being said, the Clinton camp may decide to throw their second choice supporters to Edwards in hopes of blunting Obama in some way.

1st-Obama (numbers), Edwards (heart and hope)
2nd-Edwards (numbers), Obama (I want a fighter not someone who has never ran a competitive race before)
3rd-Clinton
4th-Richardson
5th-Biden


Long term: I think we'll know a lot more tomorrow morning. For tonight, I am going to stick with my Edwards prediction and hope that Obama's base doesn't turnout tonight.

Edwards, Clinton, Obama

:(

A while back I said the two sleaziest candidates were Romney and Clinton. These are the candidates who tend to win. In reality, both of them still have very good, if not the best, chances at winning.

-Zen Blade

Good Day For Obama, Bad for Progressives?

The final ads for each candidate have aired.
Take a look at them if you have a chance...

The good news for Obama: Kucinich, Richardson, and Biden are rumored to throw their support towards him--for 2nd choice caucusing.

Bad news for Progressives: Obama's closing ad. Obama comes off as naive, and as someone the Republicans will be able to muscle around. He also has an air of Bill Clinton to him--Me over Party. He's been insulting trial lawyers, Al Gore and John Kerry, and labor Unions. Meanwhile his base is independents and moderate Republicans...

Also, some good news for John Edwards: Both Ralph Nader and Michael Moore prefer Edwards over the other two candidates.

My predictions to follow
-Zen Blade

Polls, Entrance, and the Final Result in Iowa

From a Dkos diary:

What did the 2004 polls the week of the Caucuses look like? What did the "entrance poll" prior to the caucusing look like? And what were the final results?

I have pasted the significant portion of the dkos diary below:

A couple of things to notice:

• The entrance poll is similar to the actual results, but even the entrance poll is off by as much as 5% due to the resulting deals within the caucuses when one or more candidates do not meet the minimum threshold.
• Even the most reliable polls will be wrong because voter turnout is hard to project. The most important thing to note are trends, which this chart does not show. Most of the final polls showed movement for Kerry and Edwards, but the amount of movement is not always obvious since there are a large % of undecideds or people who will change their minds in the final day or two.
• Three people can win the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, and the determining factor may well be what happens to the Richardson, Biden, and Dodd supporters.

One thing to take from the 2004 polls, how do the final polls compare to the entrance poll and how does that compare to the final tally? Two candidates had higher entrance poll numbers than their composite final poll numbers, two candidates had lower entrance poll numbers than their composite final poll numbers. The final tally for each of these four candidates continued in the same direction (ignoring Kucinich who is way below the 15% threshold).

Candidates with late momentum may continue to have that momentum once inside.

-Zen Blade

Good or Bad, Nader Backs Edwards

oi...

The story via Politico.


This could cut both ways. I do not know how conservatives feel towards Nader, but I know how Democrats and liberals feel. Many respect Nader, but at the same time, we feel Nader went a little... unhinged. My hope is that this brings out the 2.28% of Iowan voters who voted for Nader in 2000, 29,000 people. Maybe a few progressives who were afraid of the Southern accent might caucus for JRE now.

Iowa is going to be really close. The most recent poll shows Obama up by a few percentage points, but this poll disagrees with just about every other poll that has been released in the past couple of days. The short and the long of the data is that any of the top 3 can win.

Note: Obama better be careful. He is being VERY aggressive right now, and it is annoying a number of Edwards supporters. Obama dissed Edwards for being a trial lawyer... and he dissed Edwards for having unions that backed him up by running commercials highlighting the positive aspects of Edwards's campaign... Obama should be careful about the bridges he is burning.

-Zen Blade