A bit ago I wrote the following in an e-mail to a former labmate:
**John McCain (his support just hasn't crumbled, and he could become the
default "safe" candidate after Huckabee wins in Iowa)
The context of this writing was who I thought might win the primaries. I think given the continued openness on the Republican side is amazing. At this point, if the Republicans want any chance to win the presidency I think they have to look to McCain, and I think many within the Republican leadership must know this. I predict that support may begin to consolidate around McCain before/during/after New Hampshire.
Here's the national picture for the Republican nomination. The most interesting part of this chart is the rise and fall of the candidates:
http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
Essentially, no candidate has been able to build a following of support AND THEN hold onto that support. Thompson crashed, Giuliani is crashing, Huckabee is surging--but he has so many negatives that can and will be exploited. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney and John McCain have managed to hold some support.
Here's New Hampshire:
http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
Again, Thompson and Giuliani are crashing, while Huckabee appears to be rising. Romney has held onto his New Hampshire lead, but he has peaked too soon. He'll be coming down shortly. But look at McCain. He is rising from the dead. It's happening in New Hampshire, and it may be happening in Iowa....
So, what about Iowa? Iowa doesn't matter for the Republicans. Only Huckabee and Romney have been putting much time+money into campaigning in Iowa. You can avoid/skip one state and survive, but it is highly unlikely that you can skip two states and stay viable with all the media attention that will result from each election. Here's Iowa:
http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
Notice that only two individuals have a realistic chance at winning... Thus, everyone else (and the media) will care far less about who wins. However, if McCain finishes 3rd in Iowa... that would be a big deal. Whoever finishes in 3rd will have outperformed whoever finished in 2nd.
So... what about McCain again? Well, of the following individuals, which seem like they may know something about running the country:
Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, McCain
Thompson has been an actor for the past several years, Romney was a governor for four years, Giuliani was a mayor but then did nothing of note after finishing that gig, and Huckabee was governor of Arkansas for ~10 years. McCain is a long-serving senator.
I've got nothing against governors or mayors, but neither Romney nor Giuliani were seen as particularly successful leaders within their constituencies. Giuliani has recently had corruption issues, the whole "letting his wife know that he was divorcing her via a press conference", and all the conflicts with the local press and local citizens groups (including fire fighters).
Romney had no chance at winning reelection, and used his state as a punching bag while campaigning for the nomination. That might actually help him in the primaries, but he has changed so many of his positions, AND he is Mormon--a fact that Huckabee loves to point out. Religion doesn't matter to most people, but it does matter to a segment of the Republican party, the segment that loves to go out and vote.
Thompson... well, once he starts campaigning more than 6 hours a day...
Huckabee has apparently done a decent enough job: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huckabee
Not a perfect job, and you can question his motives, but he was reelected and pursued some programs that moderates and liberals would approve of. However, his religious views and some of his comments and policies make him unpalatable to everyone. His wrapping himself within a religious bubble is scary. His comments regarding individuals with AIDS are frightening. His social programs on spending and taxes would scare many Republicans (and perhaps Democrats). His lack of foreign policy knowledge frightens me almost as much as his constant mentioning of religion.
John McCain: His experience is unquestioned. His position on Iraq and some other issues I disagree with. However, he isn't running for the Democratic nomination. He is running for the Republican nomination. His position on many issues is in alignment with the Republican voters. If the individuals who are mad at him because of 2000 can get past that, I think McCain would have a great chance at winning. However, that could be a very big IF.
Here is my predictions as of today (best to worst chance):
McCain, Huckabee/Romney, Giuliani, Thompson
-Zen Blade
No comments:
Post a Comment