Predictions: Iowa and Beyond

First, back in Rise and Fall I at the bottom I gave some Republican predictions.

Republicans:
Today in Iowa:
The 1st/2nd place finish will depend on organization versus evangelical turnout. Romney has the organization, Huckabee has the evangelicals.

I'm going to give Huckabee the slight edge. This is mainly because I think this will make the race more interesting. Romney has the better organization, and he would be the more conventional choice. Either could win.

3rd--John McCain, setting up a potentially hot New Hampshire contest.
4th--Fred Thompson. The rumor is that Thompson is out of the race after Iowa, no matter what.
5th--Ron Paul ahead of Giuliani? Probably. Republicans who might have voted for Rudy are probably headed to Obama... actually most of those Republicans probably don't live in Iowa.

Long term: I give it to McCain, then Romney, then Huckabee.


Democrats:

Iowa: Ugghhh.... Obama is supposedly ahead, but dependent on independents... Many second tier candidates are telling their supporters to caucus with Obama as their second choice... uggg--this makes no sense. Sure, one or two might in hopes of receiving something from Obama, but otherwise this just stinks of a bad plan for each of them. Unless they hope to all be VP/Secretary of something.

This being said, the Clinton camp may decide to throw their second choice supporters to Edwards in hopes of blunting Obama in some way.

1st-Obama (numbers), Edwards (heart and hope)
2nd-Edwards (numbers), Obama (I want a fighter not someone who has never ran a competitive race before)
3rd-Clinton
4th-Richardson
5th-Biden


Long term: I think we'll know a lot more tomorrow morning. For tonight, I am going to stick with my Edwards prediction and hope that Obama's base doesn't turnout tonight.

Edwards, Clinton, Obama

:(

A while back I said the two sleaziest candidates were Romney and Clinton. These are the candidates who tend to win. In reality, both of them still have very good, if not the best, chances at winning.

-Zen Blade