Predictions: Iowa and Beyond

First, back in Rise and Fall I at the bottom I gave some Republican predictions.

Republicans:
Today in Iowa:
The 1st/2nd place finish will depend on organization versus evangelical turnout. Romney has the organization, Huckabee has the evangelicals.

I'm going to give Huckabee the slight edge. This is mainly because I think this will make the race more interesting. Romney has the better organization, and he would be the more conventional choice. Either could win.

3rd--John McCain, setting up a potentially hot New Hampshire contest.
4th--Fred Thompson. The rumor is that Thompson is out of the race after Iowa, no matter what.
5th--Ron Paul ahead of Giuliani? Probably. Republicans who might have voted for Rudy are probably headed to Obama... actually most of those Republicans probably don't live in Iowa.

Long term: I give it to McCain, then Romney, then Huckabee.


Democrats:

Iowa: Ugghhh.... Obama is supposedly ahead, but dependent on independents... Many second tier candidates are telling their supporters to caucus with Obama as their second choice... uggg--this makes no sense. Sure, one or two might in hopes of receiving something from Obama, but otherwise this just stinks of a bad plan for each of them. Unless they hope to all be VP/Secretary of something.

This being said, the Clinton camp may decide to throw their second choice supporters to Edwards in hopes of blunting Obama in some way.

1st-Obama (numbers), Edwards (heart and hope)
2nd-Edwards (numbers), Obama (I want a fighter not someone who has never ran a competitive race before)
3rd-Clinton
4th-Richardson
5th-Biden


Long term: I think we'll know a lot more tomorrow morning. For tonight, I am going to stick with my Edwards prediction and hope that Obama's base doesn't turnout tonight.

Edwards, Clinton, Obama

:(

A while back I said the two sleaziest candidates were Romney and Clinton. These are the candidates who tend to win. In reality, both of them still have very good, if not the best, chances at winning.

-Zen Blade

Good Day For Obama, Bad for Progressives?

The final ads for each candidate have aired.
Take a look at them if you have a chance...

The good news for Obama: Kucinich, Richardson, and Biden are rumored to throw their support towards him--for 2nd choice caucusing.

Bad news for Progressives: Obama's closing ad. Obama comes off as naive, and as someone the Republicans will be able to muscle around. He also has an air of Bill Clinton to him--Me over Party. He's been insulting trial lawyers, Al Gore and John Kerry, and labor Unions. Meanwhile his base is independents and moderate Republicans...

Also, some good news for John Edwards: Both Ralph Nader and Michael Moore prefer Edwards over the other two candidates.

My predictions to follow
-Zen Blade

Polls, Entrance, and the Final Result in Iowa

From a Dkos diary:

What did the 2004 polls the week of the Caucuses look like? What did the "entrance poll" prior to the caucusing look like? And what were the final results?

I have pasted the significant portion of the dkos diary below:

A couple of things to notice:

• The entrance poll is similar to the actual results, but even the entrance poll is off by as much as 5% due to the resulting deals within the caucuses when one or more candidates do not meet the minimum threshold.
• Even the most reliable polls will be wrong because voter turnout is hard to project. The most important thing to note are trends, which this chart does not show. Most of the final polls showed movement for Kerry and Edwards, but the amount of movement is not always obvious since there are a large % of undecideds or people who will change their minds in the final day or two.
• Three people can win the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, and the determining factor may well be what happens to the Richardson, Biden, and Dodd supporters.

One thing to take from the 2004 polls, how do the final polls compare to the entrance poll and how does that compare to the final tally? Two candidates had higher entrance poll numbers than their composite final poll numbers, two candidates had lower entrance poll numbers than their composite final poll numbers. The final tally for each of these four candidates continued in the same direction (ignoring Kucinich who is way below the 15% threshold).

Candidates with late momentum may continue to have that momentum once inside.

-Zen Blade

Good or Bad, Nader Backs Edwards

oi...

The story via Politico.


This could cut both ways. I do not know how conservatives feel towards Nader, but I know how Democrats and liberals feel. Many respect Nader, but at the same time, we feel Nader went a little... unhinged. My hope is that this brings out the 2.28% of Iowan voters who voted for Nader in 2000, 29,000 people. Maybe a few progressives who were afraid of the Southern accent might caucus for JRE now.

Iowa is going to be really close. The most recent poll shows Obama up by a few percentage points, but this poll disagrees with just about every other poll that has been released in the past couple of days. The short and the long of the data is that any of the top 3 can win.

Note: Obama better be careful. He is being VERY aggressive right now, and it is annoying a number of Edwards supporters. Obama dissed Edwards for being a trial lawyer... and he dissed Edwards for having unions that backed him up by running commercials highlighting the positive aspects of Edwards's campaign... Obama should be careful about the bridges he is burning.

-Zen Blade

Edwards (Money) Surge?

There has been some serious movement on the part of Edwards recently.

But, this from Talking Points Memo (great website, check it out).

Edwards Money

If true, this is great news and great momentum for Edwards (and supporters of Edwards).

I will try to get a real post out later today.

-Zen Blade

Rise and Fall, part II.

Rise and Fall of the Candidates

A while back I mentioned the rise and fall of the Republican candidates... well, the rise and fall continues:

Iowa
Democrats: Obama peaked and is coming down. Edwards and to a lesser extent Clinton are gaining ground. The Democratic side of the election will be decided by the negotiations inside the caucuses.

Republicans: Huckabee appears to have met the ceiling, and now he is crashing. Romney is exposing Huckabee's negatives, and it appears to be working. We'll see if Huckabee can stop the bleeding. Meanwhile, McCain's corpse is fighting on. This is why you bury dead people under 6ft of dirt. A strong 3rd for McCain and a 1st or 2nd for Romney will yield an exciting New Hampshire face off. Note: A Romney 2nd place finish will make New Hampshire far more exciting than a Romney 1st place finish.

New Hampshire
The races are tightening on both sides.
Democrats: Clinton and Obama are tied. Edwards is averaging the upper teens and has recently had a couple of polls showing him in the low 20's. If Edwards wins in Iowa, there is no telling what will happen in New Hampshire. A 5-10 point swing in favor of the Iowa winner is not uncommon.

Republicans: If McCain's corpse is fighting on in Iowa, then either his soul or his clone or his severed head preserved in a glass bowl (a la Futurama) is rallying his followers in New Hampshire. Romney is fighting on two fronts, Iowa and New Hampshire. If Romney is able to ride out the Iowa storm and then persevere in New Hampshire, he's got the nomination (barring some unimaginable event).

Iowa Dems
The prettier trend lines for the Democrats. Usually a day or two behind. Shows the convergence.

Today is Sunday the 30th. The election is Thursday the 3rd.

-Zen Blade

Benazir Bhutto We Hardly Knew Ye

Son to be her successor...

In my previous post I tried to minimize my feelings of distrust, but I desired to point out the fact that Bhutto was far from perfect (corruption).

Well, naming your 19 year old son as the person who should lead your political party upon your death does not come across to me as the act of a devout republican.

Luckily our country doesn't elect political leaders based upon their bloodline....
oh, wait...

-Zen Blade