Rise and Fall, part II.

Rise and Fall of the Candidates

A while back I mentioned the rise and fall of the Republican candidates... well, the rise and fall continues:

Iowa
Democrats: Obama peaked and is coming down. Edwards and to a lesser extent Clinton are gaining ground. The Democratic side of the election will be decided by the negotiations inside the caucuses.

Republicans: Huckabee appears to have met the ceiling, and now he is crashing. Romney is exposing Huckabee's negatives, and it appears to be working. We'll see if Huckabee can stop the bleeding. Meanwhile, McCain's corpse is fighting on. This is why you bury dead people under 6ft of dirt. A strong 3rd for McCain and a 1st or 2nd for Romney will yield an exciting New Hampshire face off. Note: A Romney 2nd place finish will make New Hampshire far more exciting than a Romney 1st place finish.

New Hampshire
The races are tightening on both sides.
Democrats: Clinton and Obama are tied. Edwards is averaging the upper teens and has recently had a couple of polls showing him in the low 20's. If Edwards wins in Iowa, there is no telling what will happen in New Hampshire. A 5-10 point swing in favor of the Iowa winner is not uncommon.

Republicans: If McCain's corpse is fighting on in Iowa, then either his soul or his clone or his severed head preserved in a glass bowl (a la Futurama) is rallying his followers in New Hampshire. Romney is fighting on two fronts, Iowa and New Hampshire. If Romney is able to ride out the Iowa storm and then persevere in New Hampshire, he's got the nomination (barring some unimaginable event).

Iowa Dems
The prettier trend lines for the Democrats. Usually a day or two behind. Shows the convergence.

Today is Sunday the 30th. The election is Thursday the 3rd.

-Zen Blade